The odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting earth just changed again. This time for the better

Recently foundSince scientists first calculated that asteroid 2024 YR4 had a probability of striking Earth in 2032, it has garnered a lot of interest in the last week.

There were jokes on the internet, of course. Andmemes. And that Aerosmith music and Bruce Willis GIFs.

However, the scientists who are responsible for studying space objects like YR4 were diligently tracking its route while we were all whistling in the dark.

The probabilities of impact have been lowered to.28%, NASA reported Thursday morning.

It was the greatest risk level ever recorded for a near-Earth asteroid, with probability as high as 3.1%.

After more observations of the asteroid overnight Thursday, scientists lowered the likelihood of a hazard to Earth.

According to a NASA blog post, every extra night of observations helps us better understand the potential location of the asteroid on December 22, 2032, and emphasizes the significance of obtaining sufficient data to enable our planetary security scientists to assess future Earth-threatening threats. NASA anticipates that as further observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are taken in the days and weeks ahead, the impact probability will continue to change.

Early in the observing phase, the likelihood of recently found asteroids like YR4 endangering Earth usually fluctuates.

Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, told the Associated Press that when an asteroid is first discovered, its trajectory can only be roughly calculated and a potential collision with Earth years in the future may not be immediately ruled out. A predicted impact may usually be ruled out as the orbit gets more precise with subsequent measurements.

According to available data, there is also a 1% possibility that YR4 will strike Earth’s moon.

On December 22, 2032, #asteroid 2024 YR4 and 200 clones cross the Earth-Moon system. Earth was struck by three of these clones. The Moon is struck by another.[picture or embed]

YR4 is not seen as a threat on par with dinosaurs, even if it were to impact Earth or the moon. YR4 is a rather small asterroid, with a length of between 130 and 300 feet. Asteroids of this size have been termed “city killers” by many astronomers, indicating that the destruction would only affect a certain region rather than the entire globe.

Unless you live in the strike zone, that’s good news.

Oregon and the Pacific Northwest seem to be safe from impact, even in the increasingly rare scenario of a YR4 impact.Based on what scientists know about the asteroid’s orbit, computer models indicated that regions in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia would be most at risk in the case of an impact.

NASA successfully altered the orbit of a near-Earth asteroid in 2022, a method that might be applied in the future to prevent an impact in the event that an asteroid becomes a threat.