State experts noted in a document released Wednesday that lawmakers will probably have $350 million additional general fund dollars to spend in the upcoming budget cycle, which is around 1% higher than was previously predicted.
In comparison to the estimated $38.2 billion general budget, that is a very small sum.
To put that in perspective, however, it is sufficiently large to address at least one of the budget issues that lawmakers are likely to debate during this session: preventing and combating wildfires, a requirement for which a state-appointed study group has suggested allocating almost an extra $300 million every two years.
Of course, it’s impossible to predict how politicians will use that money or whether it will actually come to pass. Four more months remain for elected leaders to debate the specifics of the budget. Additionally, the next income prediction, which is scheduled for May, will serve as the foundation for the final 2025–2027 budget.
Additionally, analysts projected that Oregon’s kicker rebate would drop somewhat to a total of $1.726 billion, a about 4% decrease from the $1.792 billion they had projected in December.
Oregon economist Carl Riccadonna told lawmakers on Wednesday that national economic forecasts predict a 2% growth in gross domestic product in 2025, similar to the December revenue forecast, despite very hazy and swift changes in the federal outlook in the still-emerging second term of President Donald Trump.
It’s still too early to know how those would impact the state prediction, Riccadonna told lawmakers, even though he is closely monitoring any headwinds from future trade conflicts or government reductions.
But depending on who you talk to, different people have different opinions about the state of the economy, he said. According to poll data, consumer opinion about the economy has gotten worse, but CEO confidence is at its highest level in three years, Riccadonna added.
According to Riccadonna, Oregon had a difficult 2024 and fell behind the rest of the country in terms of economic growth.
As we may be about to enter a phase where tariffs and these economic headwinds will be affecting the state, that puts us on a softer platform, a weaker footing, he said.
According to Riccadonna, Oregon is sensitive to trade and has a higher percentage of its economy devoted to manufacturing and exports than the majority of states.
However, according to Ricadonna, Oregon’s economy resumed its upward trajectory towards the end of the year following a poor start to the year. Additionally, the state’s unemployment rate has remained constant.
Despite a favorable revenue estimate, lawmakers will still need to make prudent fiscal decisions, Senate President Rob Wagner warned in a statement.
“The upcoming budget cycle remains tight, but Oregon’s workers and small businesses continue to drive our economy with steady growth and strong revenues,” he wrote.
There will be updates on this breaking news story.
Sami Edge writes for The Oregonian on politics and higher education. She may be contacted at (503) 260-3430 or [email protected].
Latest local politics stories
-
Trump policies could cut funding for Multnomah County services. It s making planning impossible, officials say
-
Gov. Tina Kotek reacts to Trump, his policies, after visit to Washington, D.C.
-
34 huge victories : 3 months in, Multnomah County drug deflection shows a 16% success rate
-
The war in Ukraine tore them from home; Preschool for All provided a fresh start in Portland
-
Oregon lawmakers agree fighting wildfires requires more money. The hard question: How to pay for it
